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Who are the everyday Russians rallying behind Putin’s war?

NEWS | Europe

A recent survey by the independent pollster Levada showed more than 80 percent support the Russian military’s actions in Ukraine. Russia’s war on Ukraine has been criticised by protesters who took to the streets, Russian priests, academics, and cultural figures. Thousands have been arrested for participating in anti-war rallies, and many have fled the country amid a growing crackdown and worsening economy as Western sanctions pile up. But how representative these critics are of Russia as a whole is uncertain. A recent survey by the independent pollster Levada showed that more than 80 percent support Russian military’s actions in Ukraine. As some observers noted, opinion polls might be skewed by the political climate. Prison terms for spreading “disinformation”, for instance, may have left respondents less-than-honest. Nevertheless, it would be wrong to dismiss these numbers entirely. Back in 2014, after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, President Vladimir Putin’s popularity surged to a record 89 percent – although that was a relatively bloodless and less messy campaign. The black-and-orange St George’s ribbon, a symbol of the victory in World War II – and more generally, Russian military glory, became a ubiquitous sight. This kind of boost is what political scientists call the “rally round the flag” effect, when a crisis supports an otherwise unpopular leader. “The [current] rise in Putin’s popularity was expected because of the dynamics of collective identity and its salience during any foreign confrontation, and war is the ultimate means of bringing the national identity to the centre of Russians’ worldview,” political scientist Gulnaz Sharafutdinova told Al Jazeera. “While the early days of the war [in Ukraine] saw some confusion, the consolidation in society grew with each day. Sanctions and how they were perceived and conveyed also played into hardening of a defensive stance vis-à-vis the West.”

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